Poll Suggestion: Who Will Be Elected U.S. President in 2024?

Ah, yes, great catch, urbanemovies​! That's actually a very important fact to point out, concerning the date upon which one person vacates the office and another person is inaugurated: the twentieth day of January, in the year after election year. So, there is nothing random about that particular part of your thoughts.

As for your other thoughts, everybody pretty much knows for a fact that the winner will be a Democrat or a Republican, regardless of how many candidates appear on a ballot in any given State in the United States (or in the District of Columbia). The only actual assumptions are as follows: (1) that Joe Biden will live long enough to win re-election, likewise that he won't withdraw from the race; (2) that Donald Trump will indeed be nominated by the Republican Party and also live long enough to win re-election, likewise that he won't withdraw from the race; (3) that there won't be a dissolution of either one of the two major political parties or something even more extraordinary (like the abolition of the office of the president of the United States altogether). Of course, there is the possibility that Donald Trump will run as a third party candidate, thus meaning a three-way race, but all too similar to the 1992 United States presidential election, meaning victory for quid pro Joe. As we know, if no candidate receives a majority of the electoral votes in his favor, then the House of Representatives of the United States are to arrive at a decision, by choosing among the top three candidates and producing one vote per State, which might take a long time for the legislators to actually pull off. What happens if they take too long, though? Well, Kamala Harris might very well become the acting president of the United States upon the expiration of quid pro Joe's term of office until either the process is completed or the end of the term of office intended for the winner of the election. The situation might kind of be seen as a constitutional crisis, since logic would have to be applied in determining that a contingency rule exists and that the rule is not superseded by any other rule.

I'd be curious to know what kind of a person would be offended by a hypothetical poll addressing such a question. There isn't really anything offensive about the question apart from the possibility that politics itself or civil service for that matter is inherently offensive. The question isn't asking who ought to win, but who do people believe will win. I do suppose that people could take offense at the very sight of the candidates' faces, though. Maybe a problem could arise in the context of the believability of votes cast on the matter, thus people taking offense to perceived inaccuracy.

@jeorj_euler​ 🤔, 

I agree there are lot of moving parts and variables to consider. Even though it is now clear who the nominees will be.

I am not sure either will make it the last few months to the actual election and either step down or be removed for more a more viable and electable option or some other reason. I would have thought this could be the year for a third party candidate,  but the polls and odds makers say no.

Plus, there are 1250 other people registered and filed the paperwork to run for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election (I would guess 25 or less will be on the actual ballot).

@urbanemovies​ Done.

@Tsarstepan​

I couldn't agree more. There are so many ways this matchup never happens, it almost seems unimaginable. Plus, I can't recall a Presidential primary & caucus season with this many X factors affecting the eventual outcome. Yet, it seems like everyone seems to accept the match-up as a foregone conclusion.

Most likely there won't be a primary election on the Democratic Party side, since the incumbent president is seeking re-election on that ticket after already having won the nomination on that ticket the last time. Whereas there is a high likelihood that there will be a primary election on the Republican Party side, even though the former president is like an incumbent in the hearts and minds of many people who worked really hard to keep him in office. To be fair, I'm not sure how how incumbent presidents are ordinarily nominated, except that there hasn't been for the past several decades any significant media coverage of the process. For all I know, nobody sharing the same party as an incumbent ever wants to contend against the incumbent's re-election bid, even if allowed, or maybe the incumbent always swiftly wins the primary election, before things like debates can be scheduled.

@jeorj_euler​

Biden already has competition for the nomination, but I agree as it stands now, it won't amount to much.

There is a lot of time between now and the conventions, but the window to get your name on the state ballots gets shorter with every passing day.

@urbanemovies​ 

Generally, in the end the most popular candidates are chosen and from all those proposed, Biden and Trump are the most recognized candidates.
However, in politics you never know.

Allan Lichtman seems to believe that the chances of the candidate on the Democratic Party ticket being elected president of the United States will be much higher if Joe Biden is again the nominee for such a party, that otherwise the candidate on the Republican Party ticket would probably win.

@GabrielFox​ I agree name recognition is a big deal, but Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were both considered long shots early on. Like you said, in politics you never know.

@Tsarstepan​ Trump may be able to run, but there is a high probability that Trump will lose.