Live Poll: Biggest Surprise of the 2026 Oscar Nominations

Will this include snubs? One surprise is the underwhelming Elio nomination over 100 Meters and several other anime (tv series) films.

@Tsarstepan​ Of course, snubs are included.

@Pencho15​ This poll always is a fun (depressing) one.

@Tsarstepan​ Can you help me to know what's this about? I googled it but the only search result I got was from Elon Musk's X which I never visit.

@Pencho15​ After being laidoff as a longtime employee/middle management of a paper company, our protagonist devises a unique plan to secure a new job: eliminate his competition (with murder - it's in the trailer).

@Tsarstepan​ Oh I got it. the Korean film that was on the run, I didn't make sense of the hashtag and I imagined it was something that was getting viral on X, sorry.

I suspended my Twitter account the first November Elon had taken over the platform.

@Jessica​ Both added, thanks.

A belated comment, I expected the Japanese film Kokuho (2025) to get a Best Makeup nomination, but was shocked by Viva Verdi! (2024) getting a Best Song nomination.

The three shorts categories and the feature documentary category were notable for their top-heavy snubs, leaving 60% of the favorites (combined odds) on the sidelines on average, including the top two or top three choices in a couple Oscar categories. I have seen all but four titles of the top5 ranked films in these four categories, as well as, the rest of the titles that were shortlisted and find the odds in line with my own preferential ranking order for the most part.

Source: goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-nominations-2026/

Best Animated Short Contender Nomination Odds

1. Snow Bear 96.04% snub

2. Éiru  92.52% snub

3. Butterfly  91.92%  

4. Autokar 64.68% snub

5. Forevergreen  59.55%

Best Live Action Short Contender Nomination Odds

1. Beyond Silence  87.32% snub

2. The Boy with White Skin 80.50% snub

3. Ado 69.49% snub

4. A Friend of Dorothy 64.16%  

5. Amarela 56.71% snub

Best Documentary Feature Contender Nomination Odds

1. 2000 Meters to Andriivka 97.45%  snub

2. The Perfect Neighbor 95.30%  

3. Cover-Up  86.34%  snub

4. The Alabama Solution.

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics  65.92% snub